(Ottawa) The results of the federal government’s latest round of economic modeling should put to rest the notion that ratifying the Kyoto Protocol will cause serious economic problems for anyone in Canada. The Canadian economy will still be one of the fastest growing in the world creating nearly 1.3 million jobs in the next decade. No province or industrial sector will experience significant loses or even rough times as a result.
“We have done all the navel gazing necessary to determine that Kyoto is a good thing for Canada and Canadians. Its time to get on with the job,” said John Bennett, Director, Atmosphere and Energy, Sierra Club of Canada.
The federal government has done several rounds of modeling the economic impact of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol and with each successive run the numbers have improved. The most recent calculation released today indicates impacts so small that they are within the margin of error - far less than 1% loss in GDP. This even though the model does not represent the job creation stimulation of deploying new technologies very well. It also scores the billions of dollars in energy savings as a loss to the economy.
“I don’t think Canadian companies or citizens who will be saving money on their energy bills will be keeping it in a sock. They will be spending it creating jobs,” said Mr. Bennett.
The provinces and industry that question the costs and assert that huge economic damage will follow ratifying the Kyoto Protocol have not done their homework. They continue to refer to a single worst case scenario calculated several years ago that was based on very different and out of date assumptions . The numbers they present have nothing to do with what is actually being proposed for Canada.
“You have to wonder about the motives of those who continue to repeat numbers they know are not relevant.” said Mr. Bennett.
Over the last 40 years of improving environmental regulation and protection industry has always cried wolf whenever it was asked to make changes.
For example: “If the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency does not suspend the catalytic converter rule, it will cause Ford to shut down and would result in: 1) reduction of gross national product by $17 billion; 2) increased unemployment of 800,000; and 3) decreased tax receipts of $5 billion at all levels of government so that some local governments would become insolvent.” Former Ford and Chrysler President Lee Iacocca in a 1973 speech later submitted to the U.S. Senate as testimony.
“Did the catalytic converter cause Ford to shutdown? Did CAFE (fuel efficiency standards for cars) cause Ford to shutdown? No they didn’t? Will the Kyoto Protocol shutdown Canada? No it won’t. Our economy will continue to grow and grow,” said Mr. Bennett.
