Correcting Myths: Iran War Impact on Proposed Oil Pipeline, Gas & LNG Projects, Gas Prices

High oil and gas prices  as a result of the United States war with Iran do NOT make Canadian oil, gas and LNG projects more likely – but oil and gas companies will profit off price speculation at the expense of Canadians (and resulting inflation).

Proposed oil pipelines, gas and LNG projects are years away from being developed and current shocks in prices are actually likely to reduce demand for oil and gas by convincing oil and gas consuming countries to shift to cheaper and more stable renewable energy even faster (Microsoft’s energy chief and energy writers like Max Fawcett have pointed this out too).

The International Energy Agency still expects oil demand to plateau around 2030 (and gas demand to plateau shortly after) and then decline due to the global transition to renewable energy, and there are enough oil projects already to meet that demand. Recent oil and gas price volatility, brought on by American foreign policy – as well as American actions to cut off oil supplies to Cuba are likely to convince oil and gas importing countries around the world to adopt renewable energy at an even faster rate than before as renewables paired with battery storage provide localized, reliable, and comparably cheap, energy even without baseload power.

The following outcomes ARE likely to happen:

  1. The price of fossil fuels in Canada will rise – increasing the cost of living and inflation. This is only in part because of supply shocks due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but largely because of speculation: In other words, oil and gas corporations will make a lot of profit off Canadians via inflated prices that are only partially the result of actual supply problems. This speculation was what really happened after Russia invaded Ukraine and it helped cost Canadians $12,000 per household (see FalseProfits.ca).
  2. Oil and gas interests will use price increases to try to pitch massive oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects even though those projects take years to come online (they’re betting you won’t do the math on the years). There will be plenty of vague statements that the world ‘needs our oil and gas.’ But new oil and LNG projects (like Ksi Lisims or a west coast oil pipeline) STILL don’t have a business case. Remember all the LNG projects that gas interests said Europe needed after Russia invaded Ukraine? That never happened? None of them had a business case and they still don’t because:
  3. When oil and gas prices rise, oil and gas consuming nations and regions speed up their transition to renewable energy – because renewables are the cheapest form of energy and already out-compete oil and gas, because countries are electrifying, and because battery and grid systems mean renewables no longer need baseload power. That makes oil and LNG projects in Canada LESS viable.

A majority of Canadians connect oil and gas dependence with instability, and believe renewable energy would strengthen Canadian sovereignty.

A new Opinium poll from February 2026 found:

  • 67% say reliance on oil and gas increases the risk of international conflict;
  • 59% believe Canada would be safer if it produced more renewable energy, in light of recent events.
  • 58% say transitioning away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy is more important than ever, in light of recent events [only 11% say less];

Canadians are strongly opposed to foreign aggression to secure access to natural resources. 

  • 70% say that it’s completely unacceptable for one country to use military force to take control of another nation’s resources
  • 72% percent say it would be unacceptable for the United States to have arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to access oil reserves
  • 80% say it would be unacceptable for the United States to seize Greenland for its natural resources.

Additional polling by Abacus Data has found:

“70 per cent of the public would feel pride if Canada were to become a renewable energy superpower, versus only 30 percent feeling that way about becoming an oil and gas superpower…. These results include a majority of Albertans (56 per cent) and 79 per cent of people living in Newfoundland and Labrador.”

Donald Trump leadership has already indicated a desire to see oil prices go “lower than even before” once his war on Iran “ends.” These statements cannot be relied upon, but speak to the inherent volatility of oil and gas prices with a chaotic U.S. Administration whose priorities seems to change constantly and why no country should continue to rely on oil and gas for energy, revenue, or jobs.

Read more:

Iran War Gas Prices Oil Pipeline LNG oil Production and Price Graphic